The Ministry of Justice (MoJ) has released brief minutes of recent meetings of the Expert Panel, chaired by the Government Actuary, which will advise the Lord Chancellor on the PIDR for England & Wales.

This is a sensitive policy area meaning that the minutes, unsurprisingly, are carefully drafted to identify general areas of work or research and do not offer any indication of underlying economic/financial data considered by the Panel or of the direction of thinking or balance of opinions. The minutes may be consulted here. This update from MoJ relates to the PIDR review in England & Wales only, which must be concluded no later than 11 January 2025.

Reviews under different legislation in Scotland and Northern Ireland will conclude at the end of September 2024, with a new PIDR applying from very early October. All three UK jurisdictions have applied a single PIDR up to now, whether in common law or under the relevant statutes.

The legislation for Scotland and Northern Ireland stipulates that “Except where [ministers] by regulations require more than one rate of return to be set by the rate-assessor [i.e. the Government Actuary], a rate of return is to be set so as to have effect for all cases.” Given that revised regulations* made in June do not address this prospect, we are driven to conclude that it is all but certain that a single PIDR will be retained in Scotland and Northern Ireland at the end of the current review. [* The regulations changed the adjustments for tax and investment fees and for inflation that must be made by the Government Actuary when setting the PIDR.]

The new, single PIDR that will take effect in Scotland and Northern Ireland in around one month’s time has no direct influence on England & Wales, where the Lord Chancellor will exercise her discretion in setting the new rate. That said, the level of the new PIDR in the devolved jurisdictions - and how it has moved, if at all, when compared to the previous PIDR - and the analysis and materials published by the Government Actuary in support of it will be of real interest to stakeholders involved in large loss personal injury claims here.